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ARPN Journal of Science and Technology >> Volume 7, Issue 1, January 2017

ARPN Journal of Science and Technology


Cyclic Variation in the Precipitation Conditions of the Mátra-Bükkalja Region and the Development of a Prognosis Method

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Author H.C.Mult, Ferenc Kovacs, Endre Turai
ISSN 2225-7217
On Pages 526-540
Volume No. 4
Issue No. 8
Issue Date September 01, 2014
Publishing Date September 01, 2014
Keywords Mátra-Bükk region, precipitation, cyclic, prognosis method



Abstract

The cycle properties of the annual average, absolute maximum and minimum precipitation values have been calculated from precipitation data for the Mátra and Bükk regions in publications [1] and [2]. The cycle parameters of annual average and annual absolute maximum precipitation values have been determined using the data of a shorter 34-year (1970-2006) and a longer 53-year (1960-2012) period (38 precipitation measurement stations) through the determination of the parameters of frequency, amplitude and phase with an analytic version of Discrete Fourier Transformation (DFT), and the values obtained on the basis of the two periods have been compared. Using prognosis parameters, a prognosis until 2025 has been made. Then, the regression function of the variation in time of average and absolute maximum precipitation values has been determined on the basis of actual and prognosticated data for the whole period (1960-2025).


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